As requested by Regan, I took a look at the stats from the 2003 season onward for teams playing after a bye week.
Firstly, I think it’s important to look at the totals for the league by year.
As you can see, there is not a noticeable trend line of whether it is an advantage to play after a bye.
The worst year for teams following a bye was 2014 when there was 12 wins and 20 losses. The best year for teams following the bye week was 2016 when there was 21 wins and 11 losses.
The average across this 15 year was 0.539.
All right, I can hear it now, but what about individual teams?
Ok so I further compiled the information to showcase whether teams are better or worse following a bye.
As we can see from the data there is a large variance in how well teams did post-bye. The best team post-bye was the Philadelphia Eagles, who won 12 of their 15 post-bye games. The worst team was the Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers who each won an abysmal 3 games in this time period.
Further research that I’d like to chart is how well teams do at home vs. away and how far traveling makes a difference.
The biggest conclusion I can see is that it matters less across the entire league how well teams do but individually certain teams do seem to play better after a bye week.