Ok Vault Studio readers, it’s been a little while since I brought you any fantasy football content. Life gets busy. But I am back this week and I bringing you some of my favourite Start, Sits, and Streams for Week 4 of the 2018 NFL Season.
Remember, bye weeks start this week, so your starting options might be more limited with the following teams on a bye:
- Carolina Panthers
- Washington Redskins
Start: Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals stay on the road this week. After a loss to the Falcons’ NFC South Rival, the Carolina Panthers, the Red Rifle will be looking to return to their winning ways. The good news for the Bengals is that the Falcons defense is struggling right now, with Safety Ricardo Allen joining LB Deion Jones and Safety Keanu Neal on the injured reserve. Pass rusher Takkarist McKinley is also in doubt, having missed Week 3 against the Saints.
The Falcons have given up the 7th most passing yards in the league and were torched by Drew Brees last week to the count of 359 yards and 3 passing touchdowns (5 in total). The Falcons have also given up the 4th most fantasy points to QBs through 3 weeks.
Dalton is the QB12 overall right now, averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game.
Keep an eye on the status of A.J. Green this week. Without him Dalton averages
Stream: Case Keenum – Denver Broncos
Kansas City is the hottest offense in football. It’s just a shame they don’t play defense. They have given up the most passing yards, and third most passing touchdowns to opposing QBs.
I don’t see Denver slowing down the juggernaut that is Patrick Mahomes and his electric trio of Hill, Watkins, and Kelce. There might not be a better group of pass catchers in the league right now. That means a negative game script for Keenum, who finished as the QB12 in Week 1 but struggled in Weeks 2 and 3. Look for him to bounce back in a great matchup.
Sit: Derek Carr – Oakland Raiders
Jon Gruden and Derek Carr welcome the Cleveland Browns. In seasons past, that would be mean an automatic start. Not anymore. The Browns have a defensive unit loaded with young talent, and have given up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, behind only the LA Rams.
There are plenty of better matchups this week.
Start: Kenyan Drake – Miami Dolphins
The Patriots defense is bad, really bad. The Lions broke their 100-yard rusher drought which dated back to 2013 in their Week 3 win over the Patriots.
The defense has given up the 3rd most rushing yards through 3 weeks, and 14th most receiving yards to RBs.
In Miami, it’s the Drake and Gore show. Rookie Kalen Ballage is non-factor and is yet to play a snap. Drake has been on the field for nearly 67% of Miami’s snaps. Granted, he had a bad game in Week 3, but Miami didn’t get the running game going. Oakland actually controlled possession, the clock, and first downs and still managed to lose resulting in Drake only getting 5 carries. In Weeks 1 and 2 he had 25, and he’s also averaging 4 targets per game which gives him a solid enough floor in PPR scoring.
Look for Drake to kick-start his season against the Patriots.
Start: Kerryon Johnson – Detroit Lions
Speaking of the Lions, Kerryon Johnson should have done enough in Week 3 to lead their backfield. Whilst his ceiling will be limited by Riddick and Blount (who had a respective snap count of 28% and 35%), I find it difficult to believe that after such a good game, Kerryon will see a reduction in snaps or touches. In fact, I anticipate his usage to go up after splitting carries 50/50 with Blount, but with almost double the efficiency.
The Lions offensive line was opening up huge holes against the Patriots and should look to repeat their success against a Cowboys front that ceded over 100 rushing yards to Chris Carson, albeit on 32 attempts. The Seahawks line is really poor, and the Lions should have greater success against Dallas. Their improving defense also kept Brady and Gronkowski quiet and should be able to do the same against an impotent Dallas passing attack.
Sit: Derrick Henry & Dion Lewis – Tennessee Titans
This week, the Titans face the Eagles who are ranked 2nd in Football Outsiders rushing DVOA. Unsurprising given that they have conceded the fewest yards on the ground, and the eighth-fewest passing yards to RBs. Not only that, RBs have only scored 1 touchdown against the Eagles in three games. The Titans offensive line should be getting back to full strength, but this is still a matchup you want to avoid against the likes of Fletcher Cox and Nigel Bradham.
Start: John Brown – Baltimore Ravens
Brown has a juicy matchup against the Steelers, who have given up the second most yards to WRs, the third most touchdowns, which has resulted in them giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. He also has the most air yards in the NFL over the last two weeks, as well as leading the Ravens in targets inside the 10-yard line. Not only is he a touchdown threat, but he also leads the NFL in targets traveling 20 yards or more in the air with 11. For reference, Julio Jones has 9. Elite Joe is airing it out to Smokey. s
Start: Sterling Shepherd – New York Giants
The Saints lead the league in Adjusted Net Yards per attempt, with 11.8. That’s bad. Really bad. It’s what happens when you give up 843 yards and 9 touchdowns to WRs in 3 games. We are back to the Saints being bad at defense, which is a joy for fantasy owners.
The Saints travel to New York to face Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley & Co, but it’s Sterling Shepherd I am interested in. Evan Engram is out for 4-6 weeks with an ankle injury. He’s only seen 13 targets through 2 weeks and change (having left the game early), but given that Rhett Ellison isn’t a true pass-catching threat, I expect those additional targets to be funnelled to Shepherd who is currently 3rd in targets being OBJ and Barkley.
The Saints just lost CB Patrick Robinson to a broken ankle, who had played over 50% of their defensive snaps. The matchup doesn’t get much better than this week for Shepherd.
If you’re stuck at QB, Eli Manning is a sneaky deep play this week too.
Sit: Quincy Enunwa – New York Jets
Enunwa will have his work cut out for him when he faces the Jags this week. He has run 67% of his routes from the slot and caught 8 of his 17 reception there. DJ Hayden plays almost exclusively in the slot and has allowed just 4 receptions all season. With the Jags vaunted pass rush going against the weak Jets offensive line, Enunwa is an easy sit this week.
Sit: Golden Tate – Detroit Lions
Tate is the Lions go to slot receiver, lining up there nearly 78% of the time. This week he faces Cowboys slot corner, Anthony Brown who has had an impressive start to the year. Overall, he has been targeted 8 times, allowing 5 receptions, but at an average of 2.4 yards per target and a QB rating of 64.6.
Stream: Austin Hooper – Atlanta Falcons
If you’re in a pinch for a TE in Week 4, you’d be hard pressed to find a better matchup than Hooper against the Bengals. Unfortunately, Hooper only saw 12% of the Falcons’ targets in Week 3 which is consistent with his usage this season. However, the Bengals have struggled against the TE. Giving up the 5th most fantasy points, and 2nd most touchdowns (2) to the TE position through 3 weeks. If you’re starting Hooper, you’re hoping for a touchdown, but given the matchup and the scarcity of the TE position, you could do worse than streaming Hooper who is only owned in 25% of ESPN leagues.
Sit: George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers
C.J. Beathard is playing QB. That’s everything you need to know.
Stream: Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers defense hasn’t lived up to the hype so far in 2018, due in part its star pass rusher Joey Bosa being injured. However, they have a tantalising matchup in Week 4 against C.J. Beathard and the 49ers offensive line which have given up 13 sacks in 3 games. On top of that, last season Beathard had a touchdown to interception ratio of 4:6. It could get uglier for the 49ers.
Sit: Los Angeles Rams
So that’s it for Week 4.
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See you next week.